Tuesday, March 7, 2017


This graph is all you really need to know about the  oil market.   With the OPEC cuts,
there is more oil used than is being produced.    So, the large worldwide inventory is slowly being
drawn down.

Oil demand was revised up for 2016 for the third time.   Oil demand was up 1.6 million
barrels per day over 2015.   This demand increase is projected to continue for many
many years.   Just so you know – 1.6 per day equals 584,000,000 barrels per year.

With the severe drop in oil and gas investment over the last two years, the inventory overhang
will evaporate – and we will be in deficit.   That creates the oil price spike that comes after the
crash.    That is how it happens.  We are not gleeful about this inevitable event  -  we are
just realistic.  

For years now, it has been China’s increase in demand that has driven the oil  story.  Soon it
will be India.   World demand will soon be 100 million barrels per day.  We will need a lot
of exploration to feed that beast.

We will need AmericanOilmen and AmericanOilwomen.


Monday, January 9, 2017


Happy New Year for all the AmericanOilmen out there!

Oil is trading in a channel between $55 and $45.   We feel the bias is
to the upside.   The conditions that support higher prices are:

1) OPEC seems to have decided that enough is enough.  Everyone has been
reporting the death of this cartel.   Well, no one was saying they were dead
when oil prices collapsed for the last two years.   They directed this severe
drop in prices, and they aim to direct the coming price recovery.  OPEC has
calculated how much damage was done to oil projects in the world, and it
is their opinion that demand increase will now keep prices higher, even with
increased production.

2)  There is turmoil in the Middle East.   There is ALWAYS turmoil there, but
the sense, now, is that it is different this time.  The Middle East instability premium
could very soon return to the oil market.

3)  There is turmoil in many other parts of the globe.  This, too, is supportive of
higher oil prices.

4)  There could be economic growth as a result of the recent US election.   Oil
demand is growing by 1.3 million barrels per day and with economic growth this
number could go up.  This will result in a very quick return to balance in the oil

We at AmericanOilman believe we have seen the bottom in oil prices, and
there is a likelihood that we see a modest increase from here.   The risk in the
market is to the upside, because of the four items listed above.


Tuesday, December 13, 2016


An oilman for Secretary of State.    The one thing you can say about Tillerson, is that
he has no government service experience.   None.   And that is his biggest asset.

He has been on the hot seat at the other side of the table  -  listening as the
government has berated the oil industry as if we are some government owned

Along with the new EPA chief, we can expect a business man or woman’s perspective
on regulation, permits and an application process that takes years instead of weeks.

Let’s make Americanoilmen great again.


Thursday, November 10, 2016


We are awakening to the end of socialism in our country and it will not end without protest.

The vote tally as the night wore on Tuesday was the bigger protest.   The strong,  quiet
majority – no longer silent – but quietly voting.  The giant, gentle protest.

Just a few thoughts:

Supreme Court
Corporate taxes from highest in the world to lowest = jobs
Individual tax rate reduction = jobs
A wall to shut off the drug trade -  Mexico will be great again
Term limits and lobbying limits
Reduced regulation and increased business activity = jobs
Climate reality = jobs
Immigration reform – we Americans have big hearts, but don’t take advantage
And finally……………………… Supreme Court (repeated for emphasis)


Wednesday, August 24, 2016


The Great 2014 Thanksgiving Day Oil Massacre may be bottoming out, and
a new major upturn in oil price, and oil companies in general, may have
just begun.

By the time this new upturn has put the downturn away, it will have been a
brutal two years of oil industry devastation.   The chart below shows
the waterfall decline in 2014.  It also shows the “key reversal” that is just
now playing out.

This reversal was the big test for oil price and  might be signaling the future
direction of oil for the rest of this decade.   The low from the first of this month
resulted in a sharp, “V” reversal and this low was a “higher low” than the bottom in

So, January’s low is confirmed as THE low.  Now we need to see the current
“V” shaped low hold as a test of the 200 day moving average.   We expect
gradual recovery from here – not a moon shot up in oil price.

After two years of this oil crash – we will take a recovery of any kind.  If I were
an oil and gas company investor (which I am) – I would be averaging in on the
good oil stocks that have been beaten down.   If I were a generating
geologist (which I am) – I would be getting ready to sell some drilling deals

Good luck to all American Oilmen.


Tuesday, July 19, 2016


Hillary has outspent him by a mile……….

Her endorsements far outnumber his………..

The sitting President is actively campaigning for and with Hillary……………

The entire mainstream media is just one big campaign commercial for her…………..

Members of his own party – Bush, Kasich, Romney, etc. are actively working against Trump……………

Members of supposedly friendly media outlets are “Never Trumpers”………….

Trump  has been written off after a minor gaff so many times, we are tired of hearing “this is the end of his candidacy……

All I have to say is this……………..”keep on bashing him”…. we need him to win by 10% to get the mandate we need to
bring about the “Real Trump Change”.

With Trump we get “Real Trump Change”.
With Hillary we get only chump change.

Your choice.

P.S.    Who do you think will be better for the AmericanOilman industry?


Wednesday, May 25, 2016


The chart below shows the price of crude oil just about to test the $50 level.
Will this be a resistance area and we decline back down from 50?  Or will we
test this level and then consolidate sideways before continuing the “Great
2016 Oil Price Recovery”

We think the latter.   Demand is surprising to the upside, and production
is continuing to decline.   Fundamentals are about to take hold of the oil market
and that is a good thing.

We in the oil business will do our part to make America Great Again!   We are
ready to win again, we want to win so much, we will get tired of winning!