TILLERSON FOR STATE

An oilman for Secretary of State.    The one thing you can say about Tillerson, is that
he has no government service experience.   None.   And that is his biggest asset.

He has been on the hot seat at the other side of the table  -  listening as the
government has berated the oil industry as if we are some government owned
entity.

Along with the new EPA chief, we can expect a business man or woman’s perspective
on regulation, permits and an application process that takes years instead of weeks.

Let’s make Americanoilmen great again.

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SOCIALISM

We are awakening to the end of socialism in our country and it will not end without protest.

The vote tally as the night wore on Tuesday was the bigger protest.   The strong,  quiet
majority – no longer silent – but quietly voting.  The giant, gentle protest.

Just a few thoughts:

Supreme Court
Corporate taxes from highest in the world to lowest = jobs
Individual tax rate reduction = jobs
A wall to shut off the drug trade -  Mexico will be great again
Term limits and lobbying limits
Reduced regulation and increased business activity = jobs
Climate reality = jobs
Immigration reform – we Americans have big hearts, but don’t take advantage
And finally……………………… Supreme Court (repeated for emphasis)

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OIL AT A MAJOR CROSSROADS………………. FINALLY!

The Great 2014 Thanksgiving Day Oil Massacre may be bottoming out, and
a new major upturn in oil price, and oil companies in general, may have
just begun.

By the time this new upturn has put the downturn away, it will have been a
brutal two years of oil industry devastation.   The chart below shows
the waterfall decline in 2014.  It also shows the “key reversal” that is just
now playing out.

This reversal was the big test for oil price and  might be signaling the future
direction of oil for the rest of this decade.   The low from the first of this month
resulted in a sharp, “V” reversal and this low was a “higher low” than the bottom in
January.

So, January’s low is confirmed as THE low.  Now we need to see the current
“V” shaped low hold as a test of the 200 day moving average.   We expect
gradual recovery from here – not a moon shot up in oil price.

After two years of this oil crash – we will take a recovery of any kind.  If I were
an oil and gas company investor (which I am) – I would be averaging in on the
good oil stocks that have been beaten down.   If I were a generating
geologist (which I am) – I would be getting ready to sell some drilling deals

Good luck to all American Oilmen.

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TRUMP VS HILLARY

Hillary has outspent him by a mile……….

Her endorsements far outnumber his………..

The sitting President is actively campaigning for and with Hillary……………

The entire mainstream media is just one big campaign commercial for her…………..

Members of his own party – Bush, Kasich, Romney, etc. are actively working against Trump……………

Members of supposedly friendly media outlets are “Never Trumpers”………….

Trump  has been written off after a minor gaff so many times, we are tired of hearing “this is the end of his candidacy……

All I have to say is this……………..”keep on bashing him”…. we need him to win by 10% to get the mandate we need to
bring about the “Real Trump Change”.

With Trump we get “Real Trump Change”.
With Hillary we get only chump change.

Your choice.


P.S.    Who do you think will be better for the AmericanOilman industry?


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CRUDE OIL FOR MAY 25, 2016

The chart below shows the price of crude oil just about to test the $50 level.
Will this be a resistance area and we decline back down from 50?  Or will we
test this level and then consolidate sideways before continuing the “Great
2016 Oil Price Recovery”

We think the latter.   Demand is surprising to the upside, and production
is continuing to decline.   Fundamentals are about to take hold of the oil market
and that is a good thing.

We in the oil business will do our part to make America Great Again!   We are
ready to win again, we want to win so much, we will get tired of winning!

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OIL PRICE UPDATE - 4/20/2016

The charts show where we are trading in relation to the

100 and 200 day moving averages.    Going in the right

direction!

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OIL PRODUCTION UPDATE - WEEK ENDING March 24, 2016

We could be at a tipping point for oil production in the U.S.  This week saw a drop to 9,038,000 bbls oil per day.  U.S. production has not been below 9,000,000 bbls per day since Halloween 2014.

In the next two weeks, we could go below that key production level and that could have a big psychological impact on the crude market.

I usually don’t give much importance to the rig count – but this is getting to be too big a story to ignore.   We are at the lowest rig count since WWII in the 1940’s.   That is going to have severe consequences for U.S. oil production in the very near term.

There are a lot of moving parts in the oil supply, oil demand and overall energy industry.   The chart of the rig count decline could very soon look just like the production decline.   We al know it is going to happen  -  the big question is  how far and how fast will crude production decline.

OIL PRODUCTION 2016

You know what they say about death and taxes – you cannot avoid them.    Add one more  -  “oil and gas production declines”.

Oil production in the US has been holding steady – stubbornly – this past year….. until the last month.

This could be the start of the “house top drop” that we all know will eventually happen.   Down 133k in one month.   On an

annualized basis – that’s 1.5MM down.   We don’t need 1.5MM in 2016  -  just a drop in US by 750k would firm up oil into the +50’s.

The ramp up in Dec to Jan may be the last gasp effort for the shale players to stay in business.  The drop to below $30 may

have finally started the decline we have been waiting for. 

Buckle up – it could be a wild ride.

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OIL PRICE, WHERE IS IT GOING?