TRUMP VS HILLARY

Hillary has outspent him by a mile……….

Her endorsements far outnumber his………..

The sitting President is actively campaigning for and with Hillary……………

The entire mainstream media is just one big campaign commercial for her…………..

Members of his own party – Bush, Kasich, Romney, etc. are actively working against Trump……………

Members of supposedly friendly media outlets are “Never Trumpers”………….

Trump  has been written off after a minor gaff so many times, we are tired of hearing “this is the end of his candidacy……

All I have to say is this……………..”keep on bashing him”…. we need him to win by 10% to get the mandate we need to
bring about the “Real Trump Change”.

With Trump we get “Real Trump Change”.
With Hillary we get only chump change.

Your choice.


P.S.    Who do you think will be better for the AmericanOilman industry?


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CRUDE OIL FOR MAY 25, 2016

The chart below shows the price of crude oil just about to test the $50 level.
Will this be a resistance area and we decline back down from 50?  Or will we
test this level and then consolidate sideways before continuing the “Great
2016 Oil Price Recovery”

We think the latter.   Demand is surprising to the upside, and production
is continuing to decline.   Fundamentals are about to take hold of the oil market
and that is a good thing.

We in the oil business will do our part to make America Great Again!   We are
ready to win again, we want to win so much, we will get tired of winning!

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OIL PRICE UPDATE - 4/20/2016

The charts show where we are trading in relation to the

100 and 200 day moving averages.    Going in the right

direction!

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OIL PRODUCTION UPDATE - WEEK ENDING March 24, 2016

We could be at a tipping point for oil production in the U.S.  This week saw a drop to 9,038,000 bbls oil per day.  U.S. production has not been below 9,000,000 bbls per day since Halloween 2014.

In the next two weeks, we could go below that key production level and that could have a big psychological impact on the crude market.

I usually don’t give much importance to the rig count – but this is getting to be too big a story to ignore.   We are at the lowest rig count since WWII in the 1940’s.   That is going to have severe consequences for U.S. oil production in the very near term.

There are a lot of moving parts in the oil supply, oil demand and overall energy industry.   The chart of the rig count decline could very soon look just like the production decline.   We al know it is going to happen  -  the big question is  how far and how fast will crude production decline.

OIL PRODUCTION 2016

You know what they say about death and taxes – you cannot avoid them.    Add one more  -  “oil and gas production declines”.

Oil production in the US has been holding steady – stubbornly – this past year….. until the last month.

This could be the start of the “house top drop” that we all know will eventually happen.   Down 133k in one month.   On an

annualized basis – that’s 1.5MM down.   We don’t need 1.5MM in 2016  -  just a drop in US by 750k would firm up oil into the +50’s.

The ramp up in Dec to Jan may be the last gasp effort for the shale players to stay in business.  The drop to below $30 may

have finally started the decline we have been waiting for. 

Buckle up – it could be a wild ride.

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OIL PRICE, WHERE IS IT GOING?

OIL PRICE GOING INTO 2016

The price of oil has decoupled a bit from the dollar.  Not on the long term correlation – one year or more – but on the shorter term.   The dollar wants to find out what it will do when the Fed raises rates tomorrow by ¼ point.

Oil is trying to find a bottom – and I think that bottom may be in.  $32 was the long term bottom from the financial crisis, and we tried to test that low price this week.  The test was a failure – and I think that it was the big capitulation down move.  If oil had gone below $32, it would have opened the door for a lower low in the 20’s.

The technical guys have now given way to the fundamental traders in the oil pits. For the last few months, the story in oil has been how stubbornly the US oil production has held up.  This has allowed the technical traders to move oil prices.   It may be time for the fundamentals to take over.

The truth is that at the beginning of 2015, non OPEC production was increasing at an annual rate of 2.2 million barrels per day.   Now, that increase is only 0.3  million barrels per day.  Not exactly balance, but moving in the right direction.   The fundamental traders don’t need immediate relief – they just want to see the numbers moving in the right direction.  That’s what will give us a bottom – and it just may be here.

The chart below shows how oil prices have moved in three down-moves, and each successive move has been smaller than the previous.  The third time may be the charm.

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